What this does and does not do. It cannot tell you whether a particular battery will fail, and there is no public data that supports an honest “chance of a $10,000 bill” number, so we do not show one. It does three things we can source: it reads the warranty limits from the manufacturer’s own booklet, it compares a measured battery reading with a large independent dataset, and it points you to the recall campaigns worth asking about. Updated October 2026. Verify with official sources before purchasing.
The car
The warranty clock starts the day the first owner took delivery, not the model year. It is on the window sticker, the sale paperwork, or the dealer can look it up from the VIN.
Battery reading (optional)
From a dealer report or an independent test. Different tools can give different numbers for the same pack, so note which one it was.
How it has been charged (optional)
Context only. It does not change any number above.
4. If the warranty has ended or does not apply: what a replacement pack lists for
Where the numbers come from
Every figure on this page was read from a primary document in a research pass completed 1 October 2026. Terms we could not find are shown as unknown.
| Source | Date | Used for | Limits you should know |
|---|
What this page does not know
These gaps are real. We would rather list them than fill them with estimates.
- No chance-of-failure number. No source we found publishes how often battery packs are replaced with a clear definition and a stated population. Recurrent reported fewer than 4% of vehicles in its connected sample having a battery replacement event (November 2025), but it did not say whether module swaps or recall work are counted, so we do not turn it into a probability.
- No installed-cost quotes. The only prices are supplier list prices for reconditioned or independent packs. We found no dated shop invoices and no manufacturer new-pack prices we could verify.
- No US-only degradation curve by model. The AVILOO medians are global, test-weighted and come from one mileage point. Other studies we read were mixed-fleet averages or range-based, not capacity by model.
- Several warranty booklets are missing. We did not verify Tesla, Chevrolet Bolt (original vehicle warranty), Kia, Polestar, Volvo, BMW, Audi, Jaguar or Fiat terms, and we could not confirm second-owner transfer for Hyundai or Porsche.
- Certified pre-owned coverage is unknown. We found no primary source showing that any CPO programme extends battery coverage. If a dealer says it does, get it in writing.
- Recall status is not checked here. Only a VIN lookup tells you whether a specific car has an open recall or whether the work was done.